Nobel da Economia: Previsões
Se o favorito vencer (via Greg Mankiw), adivinho reacções muito interessantes nalguns blogues escritos por economistas. A propósito, recomendo este texto de Eugene Fama:
The general message bears repeating. Even when there are lots of idle workers, government bailouts and stimulus plans are not likely to add to employment. The reason is that bailouts and stimulus plans must be financed. The additional government debt means that existing current resources just move from one use to another, from private investment to government investment or from investment to consumption, with no effect on total current resources in the system or on total employment. And stimulus plans only enhance future incomes when they move current resources from less productive private uses to more productive government uses - a daunting challenge, to say the least.
Independentemente de se concordar com tudo o que Fama diz ou, especialmente, com a teoria que lhe deu fama, uma coisa é certa: a vitória de Fama seria, certamente, uma vitória contra o keynesianismo que invadiu o debate público em certos sectores. E isso só podia ser uma coisa boa, certo?